Sunday, January 3, 2010

Fiesta Bowl Preview: How the BCS screwed over TCU and BSU

Well, one out of two wasn't bad.

I was right about Cincinnati and Florida. I felt like Cincy actually came out fighting. And Florida's first touchdown drive, I was actually a bit concerned for Florida. The Bearcats seemed to be playing with a great deal of emotion, and I wasn't sure if Florida was going to be able to react.

It turns out Florida is just that much better than Cincinnati.

But I was wrong about the Rose Bowl. And what I was wrong about affects my prediction for the Fiesta Bowl. I was wrong about Oregon.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Boise State (13-0) vs. TCU (12-0)

Boise State's signature win for the season was against Oregon, and that win looked pretty quality after Oregon finished the regular season ranked in the top ten in the country. However, I don't know if there was a team in the country playing less consistently than Oregon.

The Oregon that barely beat Purdue isn't the same team that trashed Cal 42-3. The Oregon that barely beat Utah isn't the same team that throttled USC 47-20.

Or are they?

Maybe the Pac-10 overall wasn't very good this year. Its teams certainly haven't fared to well in their bowl games. And if Oregon's close wins at the end of the regular season would have gone the other way (which they very easily could have done), the Ducks would have finished at no better than 4th place in the Pac-10. Then, how good would the Boise State Broncos' win look?

I'll admit I was pretty disappointed about the Broncos being matched up with TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. I, like many others, wanted to see how TCU or Boise St. would have played against Florida, Texas or Alabama - even Georgia Tech or Iowa would have been an upgrade.

This match-up creates no winners for either team. If it's a close game, there's no proof either team is any good. The game would have proven only that the two teams match up pretty well against each other. If it is a blowout, then what will people say about the losing team?

"They didn't belong in a BCS bowl."

Maybe the TCU or Boise St. is really that good and would have done that good against the likes of Florida or Alabama. We'll never know, which is why this game serves as little more than a way for the BCS committee to cover its butt.

Onto the preview...

Unfortunately for Boise State fans, this preview is not going to be very pro-them.

Yes, BSU has one of the top-ranked offenses in the country. It is my opinion they have gotten fat off weaker defenses in and out of their conference. Certainly, the Broncos have never face a team with a defense even comparable to TCU.

TCU is fast. TCU is physical. TCU is scary even from the spectator's point of view. TCU has the top defense in the country, holding opponents to an anemic 223 yards per game.

While BSU does have a prolific offense, a little-known fact is that TCU's is just as good. In fact, the Horned Frogs actually average more yards of total offense per game. QB Andy Daulton has made huge strides in each of the last couple seasons, and that is bad news for Boise State.

I didn't feel like Boise State had a chance from the get-go, and with the news that star wideout Austin Pettis is unlikely to play, this game could get ugly fast.

TCU 42, Boise St. 20

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